Who is Winning Lok Sabha Elections 2024?

Welcome you all to the most awaited year in India. In India, lok sabha elections also known as the elections for the House of People, are a big celebration.

It is the celebration of coming out of the colonial past, it is the celebration of being the largest democracy in the world,

and above all it is the celebration of electing the representative who will work on behalf of all citizens in the Largest parliament

But as the spider man once said, with great power comes great responsibility. The same is true with democracy. Just having a democracy is not enough.

It must be ensured that it functions well and works as a democracy in the real sense. In today’s analysis,

I will try to discuss various aspects of Indian democracy and try to give my unbiased opinion on who is most likely to win the upcoming lok sabha elections.

What Going on with the Congress Party?

Congress is the largest opposition party in India, yes only with 52 seats but it is. Unfortunately, It failed to get another 10% of seats to reserve its seat as the leader of the opposition parties in the general elections of 2019.

The past decade has been a roller coaster for Congress. From being kicked out of the power to being regularly harassed by the GODI media( it is a term used to describe news media that is highly biased towards ruling government),

Congress has seen it all. Once a dominant and the most powerful party is today struggling to just ensure its existence and relevance in Indian politics.

And this is not it. many other problems concern Congress that have caused its downfall at both local and national level.

Most concerning issues that haunt Congress at present are, a lack of strong leadership, weak media support with them, and the BJP’S agenda of Hindutva.

So let me start with the very first one. When you look at BJP, they have Narendra Modi who leads them.

Now you can debate on the effectiveness of his governance but one thing you cannot deny is his oratory skills, his ability to connect with people and his charisma.

On the contrary, Rahul Gandhilacks both good oratory skills and the ability to connect with the people.

He could prove a good prime minister but unfortunately for him, elections are won by emotions and not just facts.

To get public sentiment in your favor you must emotionally appeal to people.  The second concern for Congress is the unfair dominance, BJP has over the major media houses in India.

I won’t name them but if you take a closer look you will soon realize that many top TV news channels are heavily biased towards the ruling disposition.

And to Congress’s disguise, there was only one channel that spoke for them, the NDTV but even that is now taken over by Gautam Adani,

who is often referred to as the Indian oligarch, and i don’t think i have to tell you why.

What is Happening in Indian Politics?

The elections are mid-way now but the past 6 months in the Indian politics have been quite exciting.

There was almost everything. From political drama to monumental events that had never happened in the history of humanity.

Most significant are the Ram Mandir inauguration and the amendment of CA (Also known as the Citizenship Amendment Act). But this is not it.

The past 6 months were a mixed phase where we also saw opposition leaders being harassed by ED with the allegations of either money laundering or allegations of financial frauds.

And The timing of all these legal actions were also quite suspicious as they were being conducted just before the main elections.

We also saw the highest court in India, the Supreme Court abrogating the electoral bond bill that BJP passed in 2018,

where the identity of the donor had to be kept a secret.

Then there was also a massive pan India rally by Rahul Gandhi;‘” Bharat Jodo Yatra”  where he traveeled across the entire India and met the people.

This was his effort to connect with the ordinary Indians and assure them about the competency of his party.

But it is a matter of debate now, as to how effective the move was, as the mainstream media did not really cover it extensively.

Now, The upcoming elections will only tell whether Rahul Gandhi has been successful at reviving himself or Narendra Modi will once again outsmart Congress as always.

So, long story short, the past 6 months have been very exciting. BJP has been doing everything to dominate the opposition and reach their target of 400 seats,

whereas on the other side congress and other opposition parties like AAP, and TMC are fighting to reduce the influence of the BJP.

Who Controls The Indian Media?

It is harsh but true, but the majority of Indian media is highly biased towards the ruling disposition.

Whether you are a BJP or a congress supporter, you cannot deny that all you can see on prime-time debates is either Hindu-Muslim debates,

criticing Pakistan, or just praising honorable prime minister. And let me be very clear, I am by no means an anti-bjp liberal or a die-hard congress supporter.

This is my unbiased opinion. All mainstream TV channels and print outlets only cover the Modi government 24/7. it is like the opposition is left no ally.

Now there is no wrong in supporting a political party. Everyone has their political affiliations.

But the media must know, especially the mainstream media that, no healthy democracy can function without a strong opposition,

because they work to highlight people’s issues and force the government to take action on those issues.

If there is no strong opposition left then it will just be a nominal or an authoritarian democracy.

The question is not that who wins the election or who is best suited to win the elections but what matters the most is that the opposition remains alive and is not raided by ED just before the polls.

India needs is a government that is competitive but not a bully.

A government that wants to win but also respects the fundamental rights of all parties. A government that knows its power but is also aware of its duties.

A government that is assertive and confident but is also compassionate towards other parties and critiques.

And above all a government that knows how to win in a fair non-bullying way. 

What are The Key Issues of 2024 elections?

The key issues that will dictate the upcoming Lok Sabha elections are price rise, unemployment, and development (CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey),

and this is not my prediction but the real stats from the pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS-Lokniti.

This can be very surprising for many of you, as it was for me.

The mainstream media and BJP have highlighted Hindutva and nationalism extensively but still, the survey altogether tells a completely different story.

Now there is nothing to be surprised about. Many times, in politics the equations change, or the pre-poll surveys get destroyed on the day of election results.

So, only time will tell what the voters think. But one thing is for sure the pre-poll survey by CSDS Lokniti is trustable as they always have a large sample size but I also think you cannot sideline the voting power of issues like Hindutva and nationalism,

as the history will tell you these issues often help BJP to garner a lot of votes in any election.

Generally, I am very unbiasedl. I try to give my unbiased opinions and also I believe in criticizing any party that does anything wrong.

But in this case, if I were to be brutally honest then I would definitely say “BJP” is most likely to win the elections. There are ample reasons for this.

Seat allocation is certainly debatable but I think the public mandate is surely with the BJP.

Some of the top reasons why BJP is the favorite are, the Hindutva politics, positive PR by the mainstream media channels,

and a strong image of Narendra Modi as a prime ministerial candidate.

Now other issues will also play into the equation like the issues of Muslims but still, these will only account for a fraction of votes and I don’t think they will be enough for Congress to outsmart the BJP.

If you are a Congress supporter, this can be a little disappointing but sadly, Congress is responsible for their fate.

But wait, there is a catch here. Politics is a tricky business.

Many times, many other small factors play a significant role in determining election results which are sometimes ignored by the top political analysts.

So, let’s wait patiently for the election results and see who lift the trophy at the end.

What Should You Consider Before Voting?

Remember in a democracy, the biggest power lies with the voters. You might not be controlling the key political decisions and affairs.

But you have the power to elect a candidate who will work on behalf of you.

A single voter won’t do much but when the same millions of voters come together, they can break or make a party.

So, don’t just give your vote to any party or a candidate.

Make sure your candidate and the party he/she is associated with is honest, hardworking, and above all a good human being who wants to bring a change in your life.

Don’t choose a candidate/party because you favor a national leader or simply because you dislike a certain political figure.

Remember, the Lok Sabha election comes only once in 5 years, make your vote count, and let the politicians know that only communal politics or fake nationalism won’t get them votes.

If they want your votes they must bring change and development in your constituency. There are many ways to evaluate the candidates.

One of the best and easiest ways is to search on the Indian government’s “who’s who “ section on the national portal of India.

Here you can search about any politician and learn about their entire history in just a few minutes.

Website Link: Indian gov. who’s who